Metals
Today’s price sits at the 73.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 88.9
- Upside to median
- -11.1%
- Last close
- $380.84
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-change-only distribution with no carry and a small negative holding cost, balancing continued official-sector accumulation against a 2.91% real ten-year yield and evidence of price-driven demand destruction in the physical market.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
Three-year annualised price-change distribution assuming partial rather than full reversion toward the real-yield-implied level, with structural official-sector demand treated as a persistent but not unlimited bid.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- -3.6%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median sits well below the 1-year Treasury par yield. A zero-yield asset faces a continuous drag when the real risk-free rate is at a two-decade high.