Energy
Today’s price sits at the 67.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.7
- Upside to median
- -9.3%
- Last close
- $145.66
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- -9.0%
- P25
- -23.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
39% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Spot path anchored on the official forecast of Brent falling from roughly 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of 2026 toward a 74 US dollar average in 2027, partially offset by an estimated positive roll yield of three to five percentage points while inventories keep drawing and the curve stays backwardated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +5.0%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Three-year annualised return on a front-month crude vehicle, combining convergence of spot toward marginal production cost with a roll component that fades as inventories rebuild and the curve flattens.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- -13.6%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median is well below the 1-year Treasury par yield. On these estimates the Treasury alternative offers a materially better expected return with far lower uncertainty than front-month crude exposure.