Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 44.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.7
- Upside to median
- +0.7%
- Last close
- $70.15
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.8%
- P75
- +8.6%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +1.9%
- P10
- -1.5%
88% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity of 5.54% less the 0.03% expense ratio and a few basis points of expected credit loss, plus a duration-weighted price effect across the justified-yield scenario set using 5.6 years of duration and a partial-roll adjustment.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.4%
- P75
- +6.2%
- Median
- +5.1%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- +2.6%
Three-year annualised return anchored on starting yield with reinvestment, narrowing the dispersion as the holding period approaches the portfolio duration and price effects increasingly offset.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +0.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled annual spread of the one-year expected-return median over the 1-year Treasury par yield. The edge over cash is thin and is compensation for taking 5.6 years of duration risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 100.7 | $70.15 | +5.3% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.21 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $89.31 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $102.18 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.20 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $104.04 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $77.78 | — |