US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 83.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.9
- Upside to median
- -12.1%
- Last close
- $762.63
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.5%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -18.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into a shareholder yield of roughly 2.6% from the 1.09% dividend yield plus estimated net buybacks, forward earnings growth of about 10% consistent with the gap between the 24.98x trailing and 21.19x forward index multiples, less roughly 8 percentage points of multiple compression toward the modelled fair-value median. Earnings carry is high, which is why the median stays positive despite the valuation drag.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Three-year annualised total return spreading the modelled valuation drag over the full horizon, with earnings growth decelerating from the current cycle peak and partial rather than full reversion of the profit share.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- -0.1%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median is essentially level with the 1-year Treasury par yield. On these estimates the Treasury alternative offers a comparable expected return with far lower uncertainty, which is the clearest expression of how high the cash hurdle has become.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $508.55 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $277.89 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $739.77 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $208.02 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $609.00 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.0Expensive | 87.9 | $762.63 | +4.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $53.40 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $166.98 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.42 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $108.84 | — |