China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 14.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 86% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 115.9
- Upside to median
- +15.9%
- Last close
- $52.19
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into a 2.0% shareholder yield, roughly 8% earnings growth and a partial valuation convergence of about 4 percentage points toward the modelled fair-value median, with dispersion widened to reflect a 20.8% three-year standard deviation and policy and geopolitical risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -6.0%
Three-year annualised total return assuming partial rather than full convergence of the earnings multiple toward the modelled fair-value median, plus sustainable earnings growth and distributions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +4.4%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled annual spread of the one-year expected-return median over the 1-year Treasury par yield. This is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and the Treasury alternative carries materially lower uncertainty.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $25.30 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.20 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.67 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.77 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.90 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.11 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.02 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.51 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +2.1Cheap | 115.9 | $52.19 | +9.0% |