Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 23.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 76% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 109.0
- Upside to median
- +9.0%
- Last close
- $59.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +36.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +11.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into a 3.1% shareholder yield, roughly 12% earnings growth consistent with the reported 15.6% forward growth rate discounted for semiconductor cyclicality, and about 2 percentage points of valuation convergence.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year annualised total return with earnings growth normalised below the current forward rate to reflect a full semiconductor capital-expenditure cycle, plus partial multiple convergence and distributions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +6.4%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled annual spread of the one-year expected-return median over the 1-year Treasury par yield. The widest modeled edge in this report, but it carries the second-widest return dispersion.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $99.08 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $112.90 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $182.78 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $37.25 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.98 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.68 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.6Cheap | 109.0 | $59.31 | +11.0% |