Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 55.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.1
- Upside to median
- -1.9%
- Last close
- $89.63
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.5%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into a distribution yield of roughly 3.9%, funds-from-operations growth moderated to about 5% from the reported 14.8% first-quarter rate toward the 3.8% same-store net-operating-income rate, less about 2 percentage points of cap-rate drift.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year annualised total return combining the distribution yield with same-store net-operating-income growth and a partial, not complete, convergence of listed cap rates toward private appraisal values.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled annual spread of the one-year expected-return median over the 1-year Treasury par yield. Roughly two percentage points of modeled edge for leveraged, interest-rate-sensitive property risk.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.78 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $18.21 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $88.34 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.33 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.1 | $89.63 | +6.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.91 | — |