Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 44.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.2
- Upside to median
- +1.2%
- Last close
- $86.80
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into a 4.25% shareholder yield from the 2.75% dividend yield plus estimated net buybacks, roughly 8% earnings growth against a reported 10.4% forward rate, and a small valuation adjustment toward the modelled fair-value median.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year annualised total return with earnings growth moderated below the reported forward rate, a stable terminal multiple and reinvested distributions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +2.9%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled annual spread of the one-year expected-return median over the 1-year Treasury par yield. Roughly three percentage points of modeled edge for equity-level risk.