Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 66.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.8
- Upside to median
- -4.2%
- Last close
- $97.46
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into an estimated shareholder yield of roughly 3.2% including buybacks, about 7% nominal earnings growth, and roughly 4 percentage points of multiple compression toward the modelled fair-value median; dispersion is widened for unhedged yen exposure for a US-dollar investor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year annualised total return with the multiple drifting partially toward the modelled fair-value median, plus sustainable nominal earnings growth and rising distributions from continued governance reform.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled annual spread of the one-year expected-return median over the 1-year Treasury par yield. Under one percentage point of modeled edge for unhedged equity and currency risk.