Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.8
- Upside to median
- -7.2%
- Last close
- $28.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total return decomposed into a shareholder yield of roughly 4.4% built on the 3.89% standardised yield, about 5% earnings growth constrained by the banking and resource concentration, and roughly 5 percentage points of multiple compression toward the modelled fair-value median.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
Three-year annualised total return dominated by the dividend yield, with modest earnings growth and a gradual partial de-rating toward the modelled fair-value median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- -0.1%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median is essentially level with the 1-year Treasury par yield. On these estimates the Treasury alternative offers a comparable expected return with materially lower uncertainty.