Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 48.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 101.1
- Upside to median
- +1.1%
- Last close
- $47.34
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +78.0%
- P75
- +38.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-change-only distribution with no carry or cash flow, centred on a small positive drift net of the drag from a 2.91% real risk-free rate, with quantiles set from the asset's realised dispersion rather than from a fitted parametric return model.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Three-year annualised price-change distribution, narrowed relative to the one-year range only by time aggregation; no cash-flow or carry component is modelled.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Expected excess
- -0.6%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median sits marginally below the 1-year Treasury par yield while carrying by far the widest return dispersion in this report; on these estimates Treasury offers a competitive expected return with far lower uncertainty.