Valuation Lens — September 28, 2026

Real discount rates at the top of their observed range leave U.S. equities and crude oil priced above modeled economic value, while intermediate bonds, Japan, emerging markets and listed real estate carry modest positive fair-value gaps.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 28, 2026Last market session Sep 28, 2026Data cutoff Sep 28, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.59%1y Treasury

A 4.59% one-year Treasury par yield alongside a 2.90% ten-year real yield at the top of its ten-year range sets an unusually demanding opportunity cost for every risk asset in this report.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.098.9–107.1
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-2.0% to 13.5%
vs Treasury
+1.4%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.797.7–113.7
Upside to median
+5.7%
1y modeled
+7.5%-13.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+2.9%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
107.397.4–116.5
Upside to median
+7.3%
1y modeled
+8.0%-16.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+3.4%
Real EstateVNQ
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.896.7–114.8
Upside to median
+5.8%
1y modeled
+6.5%-16.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
110.093.8–126.2
Upside to median
+10.0%
1y modeled
+10.0%-46.0% to 80.0%
vs Treasury
+5.4%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.696.2–111.1
Upside to median
+3.6%
1y modeled
+7.0%-14.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
101.090.2–111.8
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-24.0% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
+1.4%
MetalsGLD
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
98.087.2–108.8
Upside to median
-2.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-20.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
-1.6%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.588.7–104.7
Upside to median
-3.6%
1y modeled
+4.5%-15.0% to 19.5%
vs Treasury
-0.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.088.4–103.1
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-15.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
EnergyUSO
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
84.771.5–97.0
Upside to median
-15.3%
1y modeled
-9.0%-38.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-13.6%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-28, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+1.1 Somewhat cheap	103.0 98.9–107.1	+3.0%	+6.0% -2.0% to 13.5%	+1.4%
Japan Equities EWJ	+1.1 Somewhat cheap	105.7 97.7–113.7	+5.7%	+7.5% -13.0% to 24.0%	+2.9%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.1 Somewhat cheap	107.3 97.4–116.5	+7.3%	+8.0% -16.0% to 27.0%	+3.4%
Real Estate VNQ	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	105.8 96.7–114.8	+5.8%	+6.5% -16.0% to 24.0%	+1.9%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	110.0 93.8–126.2	+10.0%	+10.0% -46.0% to 80.0%	+5.4%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	103.6 96.2–111.1	+3.6%	+7.0% -14.0% to 23.0%	+2.4%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.1 Fair	101.0 90.2–111.8	+1.0%	+6.0% -24.0% to 33.0%	+1.4%
Metals GLD	-0.3 Fair	98.0 87.2–108.8	-2.0%	+3.0% -20.0% to 26.0%	-1.6%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	96.5 88.7–104.7	-3.6%	+4.5% -15.0% to 19.5%	-0.1%
US Equities SPY	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	96.0 88.4–103.1	-4.0%	+6.5% -15.0% to 27.0%	+1.9%
Energy USO	-1.8 Expensive	84.7 71.5–97.0	-15.3%	-9.0% -38.0% to 24.0%	-13.6%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.1Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 31.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+1.1Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 31.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 69%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.1Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 31.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 67%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 54%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 34.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 79%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 50%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 54.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 30%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources11

1
Earnings Insight — September 25, 2026
FactSet Research Systems
2
Short-Term Energy Outlook — Global Oil Markets, September 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
3
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
4
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
5
The State of REITs: September 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp
6
Europe P/E (Price-Earnings) & EPS
Siblis Research
7
Emerging Markets Equity Valuations
Siblis Research
8
Compelling Valuations in Japan
Hennessy Funds
9
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook
World Gold Council
10
Gold Price Predictions for 2026 and 2027
J.P. Morgan Global Research
11
Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026
Amberdata

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-09-28_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.