Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 31.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 107.3
- Upside to median
- +7.3%
- Last close
- $59.69
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of local-currency earnings growth, dividend yield and partial multiple convergence, translated at a flat-to-softer broad dollar and discounted at a USD cost of equity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +4.5%
- P10
- 0.0%
Three-year earnings and payout projection by country weight with a partially normalised terminal multiple, discounted at an emerging-market cost of equity.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- +3.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the emerging-market distribution is far wider than the Treasury outcome, so a positive central edge is not a superior risk-adjusted proposition by itself.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 107.3 | $59.69 | +8.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 105.5 | $99.73 | +7.6% |
| EWY South Korea Index | +1.6Cheap | 112.0 | $183.58 | +10.5% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +1.7Cheap | 114.0 | $36.21 | +11.0% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +1.3Cheap | 110.0 | $64.47 | +9.0% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $114.17 | +5.0% |
| INDA India Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $47.09 | +5.5% |