Energy
Today’s price sits at the 80.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 84.7
- Upside to median
- -15.3%
- Last close
- $150.01
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- -9.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
37% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario mixture over the official supply-normalisation path, disruption-persistence and escalation cases, net of the roll cost a front-month futures vehicle incurs; producer equities are modeled separately on mid-cycle free cash flow.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +4.0%
- Median
- -5.0%
- P25
- -13.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
Three-year path anchored to the EIA supply-normalisation forecast and to marginal production cost, with continued front-month roll drag on the benchmark vehicle.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- -13.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year central return is well below the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a materially higher expected return with far lower uncertainty on this evidence.