US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $765.61
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of next-twelve-month earnings growth, a roughly 2.4% shareholder yield, and partial multiple drift toward the modeled fair-value distribution. Long-run average equity returns were used only as an unconditional prior and adjusted for today's starting valuation and risk-free rate.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year explicit EPS and free-cash-flow projection with partial margin normalisation from a record profit share, a defensible terminal multiple, shareholder distributions included, discounted at a 9.0% cost of equity.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled central edge of under two points over the 1-year Treasury against a p10-to-p90 return range of roughly 42 points; the Treasury is a genuinely competitive alternative on a risk-adjusted basis at this starting valuation.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $765.61 | +6.5% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $171.26 | +8.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $54.19 | +8.0% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | +0.1Fair | 100.5 | $209.74 | +7.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -0.1Fair | 99.0 | $514.02 | +6.5% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.5 | $168.78 | +6.0% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $280.02 | +6.0% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $109.00 | +5.0% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -1.3Expensive | 93.0 | $736.53 | +6.0% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -1.9Expensive | 88.0 | $600.01 | +4.0% |