Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 31.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.7
- Upside to median
- +5.7%
- Last close
- $96.83
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +16.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of sustainable earnings growth, rising dividend and buyback yield, and partial multiple convergence toward the modeled fair-value distribution, expressed in unhedged USD terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +4.5%
- P10
- +1.0%
Three-year explicit earnings and payout projection with a partially normalised terminal multiple, discounted at a Japan-specific cost of equity.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- +2.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the comparison is in USD and therefore carries yen translation risk that the Treasury hurdle does not.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 105.7 | $96.83 | +7.5% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 105.5 | $102.96 | +7.4% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | +1.4Cheap | 108.5 | $48.69 | +8.3% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | +1.6Cheap | 110.0 | $109.96 | +8.8% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $179.67 | +6.9% |