Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 31.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $70.28
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
83% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting portfolio yield plus modeled duration revaluation across justified-yield scenarios, less expected credit loss; carry held separate from the fair-value calculation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.3%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +4.2%
- P10
- +2.5%
Starting yield anchored, with reinvestment at forward-implied rates and partial convergence to a 4.6-4.9% justified ten-year yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return; the bill rate quoted alongside is a discount-basis reference and not a holding-period CAGR.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $70.28 | +6.0% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $89.53 | +6.3% |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | +1.3Cheap | 104.5 | $104.09 | +6.6% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 103.5 | $78.62 | +6.8% |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.5 | $102.47 | +6.2% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $77.54 | +6.4% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.2Fair | 100.5 | $81.11 | +4.8% |