China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 47.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $52.54
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of earnings growth, distribution and buyback yield, and multiple change across policy-support and policy-disappointment paths; the wide range reflects genuinely bimodal outcomes rather than estimation noise.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year earnings and payout projection across reflation and stagnation paths with a partially normalised terminal multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled central edge of under one and a half points sits against a p10-to-p90 return range of roughly 57 points; on this evidence the Treasury is the better risk-adjusted proposition.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.1Fair | 101.0 | $52.54 | +6.0% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $22.41 | +7.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $34.17 | +7.0% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $16.01 | +6.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +0.3Fair | 102.0 | $25.38 | +6.3% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | -0.1Fair | 99.0 | $32.51 | +5.5% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $24.66 | +5.0% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | -0.3Fair | 97.5 | $45.41 | +4.8% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $4.27 | +4.5% |