Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 36.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.6
- Upside to median
- +3.6%
- Last close
- $88.38
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of modest local earnings growth, a high dividend plus buyback yield, and partial multiple convergence, translated into unhedged USD terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- +0.5%
Three-year earnings and payout projection with a terminal multiple anchored between the current 15.4x forward level and the European long-run average.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the USD comparison embeds euro and sterling translation risk that the Treasury hurdle does not.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 103.6 | $88.38 | +7.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 104.5 | $68.52 | +7.3% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | +1.3Cheap | 108.0 | $47.27 | +8.5% |
| EWQ France Index | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 105.5 | $43.78 | +7.5% |
| EWG Germany Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $42.13 | +7.0% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | -0.1Fair | 99.5 | $60.42 | +5.5% |