Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 33.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.8
- Upside to median
- +5.8%
- Last close
- $90.59
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield plus modeled AFFO growth plus partial convergence toward the rate-adjusted NAV scenarios, net of refinancing drag at prevailing coupon levels.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year AFFO and distribution projection with terminal cap rates anchored to a partially normalised ten-year Treasury yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield; listed real estate carries far more price variance than the Treasury for a central edge of under two points.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 105.8 | $90.59 | +6.5% |
| REET Global Real Estate | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 106.5 | $26.01 | +6.8% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | $89.17 | +6.7% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $18.69 | +9.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.5 | $41.35 | +5.8% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | +0.1Fair | 101.0 | $28.65 | +5.5% |