Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 34.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 110.0
- Upside to median
- +10.0%
- Last close
- $47.21
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +80.0%
- P75
- +42.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- -20.0%
- P10
- -46.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario mixture over cost-basis convergence, adoption and issuance paths; the distribution is intentionally very wide and the central value carries little information relative to its spread.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +26.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Three-year adoption and issuance scenarios anchored to realized value, with no terminal-multiple assumption.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- +5.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled central edge over the 1-year Treasury is roughly five points against a p10-to-p90 return range spanning about 126 points; the Treasury alternative offers a competitive return with incomparably lower uncertainty.