Metals
Today’s price sits at the 54.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.0
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- Last close
- $377.91
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario mixture over real-yield paths, official-sector demand and industrial balances; no carry or yield component is credited to the physical metals.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year real-price scenarios anchored to marginal production cost and structural official-sector accumulation, discounted at the prevailing real yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- -1.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year central return sits below the 1-year Treasury par yield; on this evidence the Treasury offers a higher expected return with materially lower uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $377.91 | +3.0% |
| PPLT Platinum | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $15.57 | +6.5% |
| SLV Silver | +0.3Fair | 103.0 | $54.95 | +4.5% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | -0.1Fair | 99.0 | $60.34 | +3.5% |
| DBB Base Metals | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $25.50 | +2.0% |
| CPER Copper | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $39.68 | +1.5% |
| GDX Gold Miners | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $87.89 | +1.0% |