Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.5
- Upside to median
- -3.6%
- Last close
- $28.50
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of modest earnings growth, a compressed distribution yield and mild multiple contraction toward the modeled fair-value distribution, in unhedged USD terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year earnings and distribution projection with terminal multiples capitalised at a higher structural risk-free rate than the 2015-2021 average.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.59%
- Expected excess
- -0.1%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year central return is essentially identical to the 1-year Treasury par yield, so the equity exposure adds substantial variance for no modeled central edge.