Valuation Lens — September 23, 2026

With the 10-year Treasury at 5.11% and the US equity risk-premium proxy at the lowest reading in its 93-quarter history, modeled value has migrated toward emerging markets, China, listed real estate and high-quality bonds, while US, Japanese, Developed Pacific and energy exposures price above modeled economic value.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 23, 2026Last market session Sep 23, 2026Data cutoff Sep 23, 2026, 6:10 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.49%1y Treasury

Cash and short Treasuries offer a 4.49% one-year investment-basis hurdle while the 10-year sits at 5.11% and the 10-year real yield at 2.76%, both at the top of their five- and ten-year ranges, raising the bar every risk asset must clear.

10y Treasury: 5.1%
10y real: 2.8%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+2.1
Cheap
Median fair value
113.0105.0–122.5
Upside to median
+13.0%
1y modeled
+11.0%-14.0% to 31.0%
vs Treasury
+6.5%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.9
Cheap
Median fair value
119.0105.5–133.5
Upside to median
+19.0%
1y modeled
+10.5%-22.0% to 39.0%
vs Treasury
+6.0%
Real EstateVNQ
+1.4
Cheap
Median fair value
108.099.5–117.0
Upside to median
+8.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-15.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Fixed IncomeBND
+1.3
Cheap
Median fair value
102.299.6–104.8
Upside to median
+2.2%
1y modeled
+4.8%-1.8% to 11.5%
vs Treasury
+0.3%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
112.088.0–140.0
Upside to median
+12.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-52.0% to 88.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.089.5–103.0
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-14.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
MetalsGLD
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.083.5–104.0
Upside to median
-7.0%
1y modeled
+2.5%-22.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
-2.0%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
93.086.0–101.0
Upside to median
-7.0%
1y modeled
+5.6%-15.0% to 21.5%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
93.083.0–99.3
Upside to median
-7.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-17.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
90.083.0–98.0
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-18.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
84.075.0–95.5
Upside to median
-16.0%
1y modeled
-2.0%-30.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
-6.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-23, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+2.1 Cheap	113.0 105.0–122.5	+13.0%	+11.0% -14.0% to 31.0%	+6.5%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.9 Cheap	119.0 105.5–133.5	+19.0%	+10.5% -22.0% to 39.0%	+6.0%
Real Estate VNQ	+1.4 Cheap	108.0 99.5–117.0	+8.0%	+8.0% -15.0% to 26.0%	+3.5%
Fixed Income BND	+1.3 Cheap	102.2 99.6–104.8	+2.2%	+4.8% -1.8% to 11.5%	+0.3%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	112.0 88.0–140.0	+12.0%	+7.0% -52.0% to 88.0%	+2.5%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	96.0 89.5–103.0	-4.0%	+6.5% -14.0% to 23.0%	+2.0%
Metals GLD	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	93.0 83.5–104.0	-7.0%	+2.5% -22.0% to 27.0%	-2.0%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.3 Expensive	93.0 86.0–101.0	-7.0%	+5.6% -15.0% to 21.5%	+1.1%
US Equities SPY	-1.6 Expensive	93.0 83.0–99.3	-7.0%	+5.5% -17.0% to 23.0%	+1.0%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.7 Expensive	90.0 83.0–98.0	-10.0%	+5.0% -18.0% to 23.0%	+0.5%
Energy USO	-1.8 Expensive	84.0 75.0–95.5	-16.0%	-2.0% -30.0% to 25.0%	-6.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+2.1Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 15.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 84% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 66%Historical base rate: 67%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.9Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 17.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 50%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+1.4Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 26.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 74% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 54%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.3Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 28.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 71% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 37.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 79%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 65.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 46%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 71.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 77.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 85%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 69%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 38%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources10

1
US Stocks: current P/E Ratio
worldperatio.com
2
European Stocks: current P/E Ratio
worldperatio.com
3
Japan Stock Market: current P/E Ratio
worldperatio.com
4
Emerging Markets Stocks: current P/E Ratio
worldperatio.com
5
China Stock Market: current P/E Ratio
worldperatio.com
6
Australia Stock Market: current P/E Ratio
worldperatio.com
7
MSCI World Stocks: current P/E Ratio
worldperatio.com
8
The State of REITs: September 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp
9
Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
10
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook
World Gold Council

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-09-23_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.