Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 28.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 71% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.2
- Upside to median
- +2.2%
- Last close
- $70.81
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.2%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- +1.6%
- P10
- -1.8%
82% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting portfolio yield plus one year of duration-driven price change across the same distribution of justified yields used in the fair-value model. Starting yield is estimated at approximately 5.0%, rolled forward from a mid-2026 portfolio yield to maturity of 4.6% using the subsequent move in the Treasury curve and the index price decline, and is explicitly a model estimate rather than a reported figure.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.6%
- P75
- +6.4%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +3.7%
- P10
- +2.2%
Over a horizon approaching the portfolio's duration, realised return converges toward the starting yield. The range reflects reinvestment-rate uncertainty and a modest credit-loss allowance rather than price volatility alone.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +0.3%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year edge over the one-year Treasury is only about a third of a percentage point, because the Treasury hurdle is itself high. The case for duration here is the three-year picture and the convexity it provides if growth disappoints, not the one-year carry advantage.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.3Cheap | 102.2 | $70.81 | +4.8% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +1.3Cheap | 102.2 | $90.19 | +4.8% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.12 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.46 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $104.81 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.89 | — |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $78.10 | — |