Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $88.01
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a roughly 3.0% distribution yield, earnings growth near 6%, and a valuation change drawn from the modeled fair-value distribution. The starting distribution yield does most of the work; no convergence to fair value is assumed within the horizon.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.8%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year explicit earnings model with partial multiple normalisation toward the upper half of the five-year interval, discounted at 7.5% to 9.0%, plus the distribution yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +2.0%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled two-percentage-point annual edge over the one-year Treasury, most of which is the starting distribution yield rather than expected re-rating.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $88.01 | +6.5% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $68.08 | +6.5% |
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.87 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $60.37 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $43.63 | — |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.09 | — |