Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 37.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 112.0
- Upside to median
- +12.0%
- Last close
- $47.88
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +88.0%
- P75
- +45.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -26.0%
- P10
- -52.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario return derived from the modeled fair-value distribution alone, since the asset produces no cash flow and has no carry. The range is set from the realised volatility of prior cycles rather than from any narrowing assumption, and is by far the widest in this report.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Three-year model combining partial reversion of the market-value-to-realised-value ratio toward its long-run median with continued supply issuance and an adoption trend, discounted at a high required rate reflecting the absence of cash flows.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled two-and-a-half-percentage-point edge over the one-year Treasury carried with a 10th-to-90th percentile range spanning 140 percentage points. The comparison is marked proxy because the benchmark has no completed 12-month outcome history against a Treasury hurdle in the upstream calibration layer.