Metals
Today’s price sits at the 65.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $392.88
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Gold produces no cash flow, so the modeled return is the change in real price implied by the fair-value distribution plus expected inflation, less the negative carry of forgoing a 4.49% one-year Treasury. The mining-equity component contributes a free-cash-flow and dividend stream that lifts the upper quartile.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -8.5%
Three-year real-price model with partial normalisation toward the raised-intercept real-yield relationship, plus expected inflation from the 2.35% ten-year breakeven.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- -2.0%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year return sits roughly two percentage points below a guaranteed 4.49% one-year Treasury. On this evidence Treasury bills offer a higher expected return with far lower uncertainty; the case for gold here is portfolio diversification, which belongs to Portfolio Lens rather than to Valuation Lens.