China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 17.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 119.0
- Upside to median
- +19.0%
- Last close
- $53.17
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +39.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +10.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a distribution yield near 2.6%, earnings growth near 10%, and a modest valuation contribution drawn from the fair-value distribution. The range is deliberately wide because policy and regulatory outcomes, not fundamentals, have dominated realised returns for this asset class.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.5%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Three-year explicit earnings model with partial multiple normalisation toward the lower half of the five-year interval, discounted at 12% to 15%, plus the distribution yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +6.0%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled six-percentage-point edge over the one-year Treasury, carried with the second-widest return range in this report and the weakest historical base rate of any equity region at 50.0%.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.9Cheap | 119.0 | $53.17 | +10.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +1.9Cheap | 119.0 | $34.36 | +10.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.9Cheap | 119.0 | $25.66 | +10.5% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +1.9Cheap | 119.0 | $22.41 | +10.5% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.34 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $33.59 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.11 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $47.13 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.85 | — |