Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $97.05
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a dividend yield near 2.2%, net buyback contribution of roughly 2.0%, earnings growth near 7%, and a valuation change drawn from the modeled fair-value distribution. Returns are expressed in US dollar terms for an unhedged investor, so yen volatility widens the range.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year explicit earnings model with partial multiple normalisation toward a governance-adjusted anchor, plus dividends and buybacks.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled edge of roughly half a percentage point over a guaranteed 4.49% one-year Treasury, carried with a 10th-to-90th percentile range of -18% to +23%. On this evidence the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty.