Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 71.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $28.36
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.5%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a distribution yield near 3.6%, the highest among the equity regions here, earnings growth near 5%, and a valuation change drawn from the fair-value distribution. The high starting yield carries the return; growth contributes relatively little.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.8%
- P75
- +8.8%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
Three-year explicit earnings model with partial multiple normalisation toward the five-year midpoint, discounted at 8.5% to 9.5%, plus the distribution yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled edge of roughly one percentage point over a guaranteed 4.49% one-year Treasury, most of which is the starting distribution yield rather than any expected re-rating.