Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 15.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 84% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 113.0
- Upside to median
- +13.0%
- Last close
- $60.12
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +11.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
76% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a distribution yield near 2.9%, earnings growth near 12% reflecting the current emerging-market earnings expansion, and a modest valuation contribution drawn from the fair-value distribution. Long-run emerging-market averages are used only as a sanity check, not as the forecast.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- +5.0%
- P10
- 0.0%
Three-year explicit earnings model with partial discount narrowing, discounted at 9.5% to 12%, plus the distribution yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +6.5%
- Basis
- direct
The widest modeled edge over the one-year Treasury in this report, but carried with a 10th-to-90th percentile range spanning 45 percentage points and no publishable calibrated probability.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +2.1Cheap | 113.0 | $60.12 | +11.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +2.1Cheap | 113.0 | $100.43 | +11.0% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $112.50 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $185.65 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $37.37 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $66.44 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $48.05 | — |