Energy
Today’s price sits at the 80.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 84.0
- Upside to median
- -16.0%
- Last close
- $148.83
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -15.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
46% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario return combines convergence toward the EIA forward crude path with roll yield from the futures curve for the commodity component, and dividends plus free cash flow near 3.5% for the producer-equity component. The one-year horizon straddles the point at which the EIA expects inventories to stop falling and begin rebuilding.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +0.5%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
Three-year model in which prices converge toward marginal cost plus a normal incentive margin, with producer shareholder yield added for the equity component.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- -6.5%
- Basis
- direct
The most negative modeled edge against the one-year Treasury in this report. A guaranteed 4.49% compares against a modeled median of -2.0% with a 10th-to-90th percentile range of -30% to +25%.