Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 26.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 74% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 108.0
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- Last close
- $91.45
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
73% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a distribution yield near 4.3%, funds-from-operations growth near 3%, and a valuation change drawn from the fair-value distribution. Rate sensitivity is treated explicitly: the same yield scenarios that drive the bond model also drive the cap-rate component here.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.5%
Three-year model combining the distribution yield, contractual rent escalators and partial closure of the net-asset-value discount, discounted at 8.5% to 10%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled three-and-a-half-percentage-point edge over the one-year Treasury, roughly a quarter of which is the distribution yield advantage and the remainder growth plus partial discount closure.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.4Cheap | 108.0 | $91.45 | +8.0% |
| REET Global Real Estate | +1.4Cheap | 108.0 | $26.14 | +8.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +1.4Cheap | 108.0 | $41.84 | +8.0% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $19.32 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $89.09 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.52 | — |