US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $767.81
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Decomposition of scenario total return into sustainable earnings growth of roughly 8%, a dividend yield near 1.2%, net buyback contribution of roughly 1.6%, and a valuation change drawn from the modeled fair-value distribution rather than assumed convergence. Anchored to, but not set equal to, long-run realised equity returns, then adjusted for the record-low profits-yield-to-real-yield spread and a 4.49% one-year Treasury alternative.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.8%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year explicit earnings model with partial normalisation of the profit share and of the justified multiple, discounted at 8.0% to 9.5%, plus dividends and net buybacks. Partial rather than full mean reversion is applied.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled one-year edge of roughly one percentage point over a guaranteed 4.49% one-year Treasury, carried with a modeled 10th-to-90th percentile return range spanning -17% to +23%. This is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.0 | $767.81 | +5.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.0 | $514.30 | +5.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.0 | $211.31 | +5.5% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.0 | $281.92 | +5.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $741.21 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $601.41 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $54.54 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $170.10 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.80 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $110.65 | — |