Valuation Lens — September 18, 2026
Real yields near multi-decade highs leave US equities, real estate and gold trading above modeled economic value, while Europe, China and Japan sit at or below it.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.44% is today's annual hurdle, set against a 10-year nominal yield of 5.01% and a 10-year real yield of 2.68% that sits near the top of its twenty-year range.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.0%
- 10y real
- 2.7%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +0.9Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 104.096.6–110.7
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-14.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.6%
- +0.9Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 107.594.7–117.6
- Upside to median
- +7.5%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-26.0% to 38.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.6%
- +0.4Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.093.2–111.1
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-18.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.1%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.697.8–103.3
- Upside to median
- +0.6%
- 1y modeled
- +5.6%-1.5% to 11.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.2%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.090.2–107.8
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-20.0% to 30.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.6%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.4Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.076.1–115.2
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-48.0% to 62.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.4%
- -0.8Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.088.2–104.1
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-17.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.6%
- EnergyUSO-0.9Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.083.6–105.1
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +1.0%-32.0% to 33.0%
- vs Treasury
- -3.4%
- Real EstateVNQ-1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.584.4–102.3
- Upside to median
- -6.5%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-19.0% to 23.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.1%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.4Expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.285.2–100.7
- Upside to median
- -6.8%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-18.0% to 25.5%
- vs Treasury
- +2.1%
- MetalsGLD-1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 86.074.5–98.1
- Upside to median
- -14.0%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-25.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.4%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 35.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 34.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 43.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 44.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 56.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 69.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 73.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 78.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources6
- 1S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026FactSet Research Systems
- 2Analysts Increasing EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies For 2nd Straight QuarterFactSet Research Systems
- 3
- 4Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — Central BanksWorld Gold Council
- 5
- 6
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- cxpw_vl_20260918_001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.