Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 44.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.6
- Upside to median
- +0.6%
- Last close
- $71.20
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -1.5%
84% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting portfolio yield plus roll, with a duration-weighted price contribution from partial one-year convergence toward the modeled justified-yield distribution and a small expected credit-loss deduction on the corporate sleeve. Carry is kept separate from the fair-value calculation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.6%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +3.8%
- P10
- +2.0%
Starting yield dominates over a three-year horizon at roughly half the benchmark duration, so the distribution narrows sharply and centres close to the current portfolio yield net of expected credit losses.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- +1.2%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury is the smallest positive figure in this report and is earned by accepting roughly six years of duration risk; a reader should weigh that against holding the 1-year Treasury at 4.44% with materially lower uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.3Fair | 100.6 | $71.20 | +5.6% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.80 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.24 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.25 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.27 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.70 | — |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $78.53 | — |