Metals
Today’s price sits at the 78.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 86.0
- Upside to median
- -14.0%
- Last close
- $401.17
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-change-only distribution for the bullion benchmark, centred on partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median and widened for the possibility that the real-yield relationship has structurally broken. The mining-equity constituents would add a free-cash-flow component that this benchmark does not carry.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
Three-year path anchored on partial reversion of the real gold price toward its long-run real range, offset by a persistent official-sector bid at a lower run-rate than 2024-2025 and by continuing reserve diversification.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- -2.4%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median return sits well below the 1-year Treasury par yield. The 4.44% risk-free alternative is itself the mechanism that makes a non-yielding store of value expensive at these real rates.