Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 56.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $46.02
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +62.0%
- P75
- +34.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-change-only distribution, since the asset generates no contractual cash flow. The centre is set by partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median and the width by the historical realized dispersion of the asset class, not by a return forecast.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +36.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Three-year price-change distribution with the adoption and issuance anchors given more room to act, partly offset by a wider regulatory-reversal tail.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- -0.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median sits marginally below the 1-year Treasury par yield while carrying by far the widest return distribution in this report. On these inputs the Treasury offers a comparable expected return with dramatically lower uncertainty.