Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $60.01
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total-return decomposition into roughly 10% earnings growth led by the semiconductor and technology constituents, a 2.9% distribution yield, and a small valuation drag, with dispersion widened for dollar funding-cost and single-country policy risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -4.5%
Three-year earnings path with the semiconductor contribution normalized toward a mid-cycle rate and a terminal multiple at the long-run emerging-market median, discounted at a dollar cost of equity that includes the current US real yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return above the 1-year Treasury par yield. Note that the fair-value score is essentially neutral, so the edge here comes from growth and yield rather than from mispricing.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $60.01 | +8.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $99.24 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $111.64 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $181.31 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $37.52 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $68.49 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $48.02 | — |