Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 35.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $88.21
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total-return decomposition into sustainable earnings growth of about 7%, a trailing distribution yield near 3.0%, and partial one-year convergence toward the modeled fair-value median, with dispersion widened for energy-cost and trade-policy risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year earnings and distribution path with a terminal multiple set at the euro-area long-run median, discounted at a euro-area cost of equity, allowing greater valuation convergence than the one-year model.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- +4.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return above the 1-year Treasury par yield. This is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and the 1-year par yield is an investment-basis hurdle rather than a realized security return.