US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 73.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.2
- Upside to median
- -6.8%
- Last close
- $761.69
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.5%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -18.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total-return decomposition into roughly 9% next-twelve-month operating earnings growth stripped of non-recurring investment gains, a dividend yield near 1.1% with buybacks already inside earnings growth, and a multiple drag from partial one-year convergence toward the modeled fair-value median. Dispersion is set from forward implied-equivalent volatility rather than the current 9.2% realized reading, which sits in the eleventh percentile of five years.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year explicit earnings path with partial rather than full margin normalization, a terminal multiple set by the real-yield-adjusted justified multiple, dividends added and the present value discounted at a cost of equity built on the current real yield plus an equity risk premium.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled two-point edge over the 1-year Treasury for accepting full equity risk. Given a fair-value median 6.8% below the market price and a 4.44% risk-free alternative, the compensation for equity risk here is historically thin rather than absent.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.4Expensive | 93.2 | $761.69 | +6.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $515.88 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $212.29 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $721.45 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $284.10 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $573.00 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.86 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.75 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.39 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $111.03 | — |