Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 43.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $97.00
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -18.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total-return decomposition in yen into roughly 8% earnings growth and a 2.3% distribution yield, converted to unhedged US dollars with a two-sided currency distribution centred slightly stronger than the current 156.6 USD/JPY rate, plus modest valuation convergence.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Three-year yen earnings and buyback path with a terminal multiple set below the pre-normalization norm to reflect a near-3% domestic risk-free rate, combined with a wider three-year currency normalization distribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- +3.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return above the 1-year Treasury par yield for an unhedged US-dollar holder; a meaningful part of both the edge and the dispersion is currency rather than equity.