Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 69.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.5
- Upside to median
- -6.5%
- Last close
- $92.91
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.5%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -19.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total-return decomposition into a distribution yield near 4.0%, AFFO growth of about 4.0% consistent with the reported 12.4% FFO growth decelerating toward same-store NOI growth, and a valuation drag from partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year AFFO path net of the modeled refinancing drag as the 4.2% average debt cost rolls toward market, with a terminal capitalization rate between the current implied level and the long-run spread over the 10-year Treasury.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
A thin modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury against an equity-like return distribution. The same 10-year yield that sets the Treasury alternative is also the direct input to the capitalization-rate spread that makes this asset class screen expensive.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 93.5 | $92.91 | +5.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.53 | — |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.22 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $89.72 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.56 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $19.58 | — |