Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $28.75
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total-return decomposition into roughly 5% earnings growth, a high regional distribution yield near 3.6%, and a small valuation drag from partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year earnings and distribution path with the bank multiple partially normalized toward global peers and resource earnings set at a mid-cycle commodity assumption.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
A modest modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury earned largely through distribution yield rather than through valuation, against an equity return distribution roughly four times as wide as the fixed-income one.