Energy
Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.0
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- Last close
- $153.82
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -14.0%
- P10
- -32.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price-change and roll-yield distribution for the rolling futures benchmark, centred on partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median with a small backwardation carry credit, and widened materially for supply-disruption and de-escalation tails.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
Three-year path anchored on the long-run marginal incentive price for non-OPEC supply, with roll yield allowed to turn negative if the curve reverts to contango.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- -3.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median return sits well below the 1-year Treasury par yield while carrying one of the widest distributions in this report. The comparison is marked proxy because a rolling futures benchmark is not a like-for-like total-return instrument.