China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 34.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 107.5
- Upside to median
- +7.5%
- Last close
- $53.07
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Total-return decomposition into roughly 8% earnings growth, a combined dividend and buyback yield near 3.5%, and partial one-year convergence toward the modeled fair-value median, with dispersion widened materially for policy, regulatory and trade-escalation risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -6.5%
Three-year free-cash-flow and buyback path for the platform-heavy index core with a terminal multiple held below the long-run regional median to retain a permanent governance and geopolitical discount.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Expected excess
- +4.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return above the 1-year Treasury par yield. The edge is comparable to Europe's but is earned against a far wider return distribution, so it is not the same quality of edge.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 107.5 | $53.07 | +9.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.32 | — |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $25.34 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.45 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $33.77 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.30 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $47.08 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.83 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.24 | — |