Valuation Lens — November 9, 2026

Emerging-market and China equities screen modestly cheap and core bonds slightly cheap, while US equities and crude oil trade above modeled fair value.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

November 9, 2026Last market session Nov 9, 2026Data cutoff Nov 9, 2026, 6:45 PM EST

The hurdle to beat

4.38%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.38% is the annual hurdle, and a 2.66% 10-year real yield near the top of its 10-year range raises the discount rate applied to long-duration assets.

10y Treasury: 4.9%
10y real: 2.7%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
107.097.6–117.8
Upside to median
+7.0%
1y modeled
+8.5%-15.0% to 31.0%
vs Treasury
+4.1%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.096.2–115.1
Upside to median
+5.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-22.0% to 37.0%
vs Treasury
+3.6%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.099.0–103.2
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+5.6%-0.8% to 12.0%
vs Treasury
+1.2%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.091.6–107.1
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-12.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+2.6%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
97.076.8–121.3
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-45.0% to 60.0%
vs Treasury
-1.4%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
98.591.1–106.6
Upside to median
-1.5%
1y modeled
+6.5%-13.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
MetalsGLD
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.084.9–105.1
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+2.0%-18.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-2.4%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.089.3–103.4
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-14.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.087.3–101.4
Upside to median
-6.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-12.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
91.583.4–100.3
Upside to median
-8.5%
1y modeled
+5.5%-15.5% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
EnergyUSO
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
90.081.9–100.1
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
-2.0%-30.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
-6.4%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-11-09, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.1 Somewhat cheap	107.0 97.6–117.8	+7.0%	+8.5% -15.0% to 31.0%	+4.1%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	105.0 96.2–115.1	+5.0%	+8.0% -22.0% to 37.0%	+3.6%
Fixed Income BND	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	101.0 99.0–103.2	+1.0%	+5.6% -0.8% to 12.0%	+1.2%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.2 Fair	99.0 91.6–107.1	-1.0%	+7.0% -12.0% to 25.0%	+2.6%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.2 Fair	97.0 76.8–121.3	-3.0%	+3.0% -45.0% to 60.0%	-1.4%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.3 Fair	98.5 91.1–106.6	-1.5%	+6.5% -13.0% to 25.0%	+2.1%
Metals GLD	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	95.0 84.9–105.1	-5.0%	+2.0% -18.0% to 22.0%	-2.4%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	96.0 89.3–103.4	-4.0%	+5.0% -14.0% to 24.0%	+0.6%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	94.0 87.3–101.4	-6.0%	+5.5% -12.0% to 22.0%	+1.1%
US Equities SPY	-1.5 Expensive	91.5 83.4–100.3	-8.5%	+5.5% -15.5% to 23.0%	+1.1%
Energy USO	-1.5 Expensive	90.0 81.9–100.1	-10.0%	-2.0% -30.0% to 30.0%	-6.4%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.1Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 30.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 68%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 49%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 80%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 0–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 69%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 44%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 54%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 74.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 74.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 40%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources14

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026
FactSet
2
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
3
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
4
MSCI China Index
MSCI
5
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index
MSCI
6
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
MSCI
7
MSCI World Index
MSCI
8
MSCI North America Index
MSCI
9
Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
10
Goldhub Insights: Posts from July 2026
World Gold Council
11
Strength in REIT Operations Underpins Strong Investment Performance
Nareit
12
Why Bitcoin Might Not Reach The Realized Price Again
Look Into Bitcoin
13
Crude Oil Price Today: Brent at $95.16, WTI at $87.94 in Post-Market Trade on 5 November 2026
5paisa
14
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Vanguard

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-11-09-001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.