Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $89.99
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-09
66/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model: 2.9% dividend yield plus about 4-5% earnings growth after haircutting the implied forward step-up, with negligible valuation convergence; dispersion from about 15% annualized volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with volatility scaled by the square root of time.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments