Metals
Today’s price sits at the 63.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $379.53
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry; return combines partial convergence toward median fair value with continued official-sector demand, less fund expenses; dispersion from about 16% annualized volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -9.0%
Inflation-like drift with valuation convergence and volatility scaled by the square root of time; indicative only.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- -2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher median return with far lower uncertainty.